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In mid-July 1990, Iraq was on the verge of war due to escalating tensions with Kuwait. Saddam Hussein accused Kuwait of overproducing oil from the Rumaila oilfield, located on the border between Iraq and Kuwait. He argued that this excessive production was leading to a drop in oil prices. On July 17, Saddam issued a threat of military action. Just two weeks later, on August 2, 1990, Iraqi tanks invaded Kuwait, swiftly replacing the Kuwaiti regime with a temporary government. Within six days, Iraq formally declared Kuwait as its 19th province.
To understand Iraq's motivations, the realist paradigm provides a fitting analytical lens. Indeed, central to realism is the belief that states prioritise their own security and survival within an anarchic international system. Expanding on the realist framework, offensive realism, as articulated by Mearsheimer (2001), posits that states are power-maximising entities that seek hegemony to ensure their security. According to Mearsheimer's theory, great powers are perpetually uncertain about the motives of other states and therefore pursue dominance as a means of survival. This pursuit is driven by the belief that states are better off with more power, and even if hegemony is unattainable, states will still seek to collect power defensively or offensively to maintain a dominant position in the system.
Iraq's decision to invade Kuwait can be understood as a strategic move aimed at asserting dominance in the region in response to the increasing influence of its rivals. Indeed, Iraq felt pressured by the growing influence of Israel in the region, with assistance from the United States. Wafiq al-Samarrai, the deputy director of Iraqi military intelligence, stated that his office received warnings in 1990 about Israeli intentions to attack Iraq's nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons facilities. In response, in July 1990, the Iraqi president accused the rulers of the Gulf states of acting as instruments in a global initiative orchestrated by imperialist and Zionist forces aimed at hampering the country's scientific and technological advancements. The Iraqi government was anticipating an Israeli military assault in August 1990. These conspiracy theories led to a significant shift in Iraqi foreign policy, influencing Saddam Hussein’s choice to invade Kuwait. Indeed, these warnings suggested that a challenge to Iraq's sovereignty and security was imminent, thus necessitating the need to safeguard its own security and establish dominance in the region. Saddam Hussein believed that by invading Kuwait, Iraq could protect its power against these perceived external threats. We can thus understand Iraq’s invasion as a means of survival due to uncertainty about Israel's intentions.
Check out this video which explains the brief overview of the war and how Hussein's actions led to Western involvement.
Moreover, control of Kuwait's oil reserves was a significant factor in Iraq's decision to invade Kuwait. This complements the broader strategic calculations rooted in offensive realism. Controlling Kuwait's resources would not only boost Iraq's economic power but also contribute to its regional dominance and security. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was also driven by economic grievances, with the invasion serving as an attempt to secure Iraq's economic reconstruction during a domestic crisis. After the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq faced significant economic hardships. The aftermath of the war left Iraq's economy in disarray, with high unemployment, inflation, and foreign debt. The decline in oil revenue worsened the economic strain. Oil output dropped from 3.4 million barrels per day in 1980 to 0.9 million barrels per day in 1981. This sharp decline severely affected the government's ability to meet financial obligations. In light of this decline, the invasion of Kuwait became an evident solution to Iraq's economic fragility and a way to improve living standards. Iraqi officials presented a vision of economic prosperity post-invasion. They envisioned rapid debt repayment, increased oil production, and increased spending on development projects. The urgent need for economic rejuvenation led Saddam Hussein to view Kuwait's oil reserves and financial assets as a solution.
In summary, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait can be understood through the realist lens. It showcases how states driven by self-interest will go to extreme lengths to safeguard their security and assert their dominance. However, we should not forget that this is just one perspective. The invasion could also be analysed through other paradigms of International Relations, such as liberalism, constructivism or critical theory.
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