.png)
William's Article was the winning entry of Pragmat's Launch Competition!
Following huge rises in immigration to 672,000 in the year to June 2023 (Home Office, 2024), the Conservatives have announced changes to policy which have started rolling out this month. These include:
1. Restricting visas to exclude dependents and limiting working visas. (Excluding caregivers)
2. 48% increase in the salary threshold to qualify for visas
3. Removing the 20% discount allowed for shortage occupations (cut price labour)
4. Raising the minimum income for family visas to £38,700
5. Banning overseas students from bringing family members to the UK
As the second change highlights, the 'going rate' for each job to be eligible for skilled work visas has increased from the 25th percentile of earnings for that job to the median, a move Conservatives argue will prevent migrants from undercutting British workers. Furthermore, this significant increase may make it difficult for companies to obtain skilled worker visas outside the capital, potentially exacerbating regional North-South divides.
Various labour groups, such as skilled workers and international students, will be affected by the policy changes. The following results stem from surveys conducted by the author, which were responded to by professionals intending to emigrate to the UK and international students currently enrolled in UK universities. When questioned about their opinions on such changes, both groups expressed the most concern about the prohibition on overseas students bringing their families with them.
There is no doubt that separating families in this way is morally questionable (at best), but it can have negative economic impacts as well. The lack of social support experienced when moving to a new country can negatively affect worker productivity and might lead to the “deterioration of larger immigrant networks” in the UK, says one Chinese IT professional who is considering emigrating to the UK. Given that immigrants make up around 14.8% of the UK’s population, this is certainly a pertinent issue.
It could be argued that these changes were simply made in the hope of winning more votes in the lead-up to the election, given that the Conservatives boast the lowest public support on immigration of any party; 22% as surveyed by Financial Times – and that the changes will not have a very significant effect anyway. The Home Office estimates these changes will only cut net migration by 15,000 annually of a total 672,000.
The majority of skilled worker visas are under health and care roles, which are still in high demand. It begs the question whether immigration necessarily even needs to fall significantly. The Migration advisory committee is to review the graduate route to ensure it works “in the best interests of the UK, to prevent abuse and protect the integrity and quality of UK higher education” (Home Office 2024), and has been rushed to finish its review by May 2024, giving them just 6 months as opposed to the usual 12. The Government did confirm that they do not plan to abolish the graduate route, which Valeria Loureva (2024) agrees would be irresponsible and rash given that it was reintroduced a mere 3 years ago after being previously abolished in 2012 under Cameron’s government because of “national security concerns”.
Likely changes may involve reducing the duration from 2 years to 12 or 18 months and restricting which universities and which courses are able to access the visa. Unsurprisingly, it does worry international students currently studying in the UK, who might be forced to obtain a skilled worker visa immediately following university, which is also now more difficult to obtain. A UK international student of big data said that the changes may make them “look for job opportunities in countries other than the UK”, and they are likely not alone in this thinking.
By going through with these changes, the government could severely damage the UK’s access to highly skilled students from around the globe, which it has historically had access to. It may also have wider ramifications on how the UK is viewed as a desirable location for higher quality education and employment opportunities.
The UK seems to have gradually shifted its role on the global scene over the past few decades. While some argue that these changes are not necessarily flawed, citing evidence that certain immigrants strain the UK economy through high welfare and healthcare payments, it's crucial to make more nuanced distinctions between different types of immigrants, a task current policy often fail to accomplish. Nonetheless, any decisions made by the UK government regarding immigration should be approached with caution, considering the desired future of the labour market and economic landscape.
Should it become more closed off like Japan and mire immigration in red tape, maintaining the wealth of the nation to strictly its own citizens? Should it open borders further for cheaper labour like Canada or New Zealand? Or might it stay somewhere in the middle, trying to control current levels of immigration until the next leadership comes along.
A fascinating read and deserved winner for the competition. Congratulations @William Dang!