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“And before you know it, you have a bright future behind you, and you are left wondering whether you can credibly be an elderly statesman at the age of forty-four.” These words were uttered by Rishi Sunak as he gave his first speech to the House of Commons as Leader of HM Opposition, following his Party’s disastrous defeat on the 4th of July 2024. Graciously accepting the result of the General Election, Sunak has announced that he will resign as party leader and return to the backbenches. He will stay on for the next few months until his replacement is found. His tenure was short and not all that sweet, such is the relentless pace of party politics.
Check out this brilliant video by TLDR which outlines the process involved in electing the new Conservative Party Leader
Indeed, this pace only seems to be accelerating as we move straight onto Tory hopefuls throwing their hat into the ring to become the next leader. At the time of writing (28.07.24), Mel Stride, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, and Robert Jenrick are some of the bigger names to have announced their candidacy. As time goes on, last-minute bids and surprise endorsements are sure to affect the dynamics of the race. For now, however, we can begin speculating about how the race might play out, which names will dominate headlines, and which part of the deeply fractured Conservative Party will wrestle ultimate control of its identity.
Firstly, we need to understand the process by which Conservative Party leaders are elected. Each candidate needs the support of 10 MPs to get on the ballot paper. MPs who are whips or sit on the 1922 committee cannot nominate a candidate, leaving about 100 remaining MPs with a vote. Nominations will close on the 29th of July and up to 10 MPs could be in the running. In September, 4 candidates will be selected by MPs to progress to the next round. This will set the stage for a dramatic party conference at the beginning of October, where the 4 hopefuls will pitch themselves to members as the next party leader. At this stage, it is still MPs who decide, electing the final two candidates to be decided by Conservative Party members. The choice goes to party members across the country, and the new leader will be named on November 2nd 2024.
Some have criticised the choice to have such a long process of 3 months, arguing it will allow the fledgling Labour government to have its first party conference and publish its first Budget essentially unopposed – Sunak will continue to spearhead the opposition, but will pack a light punch in light of his imminent demotion. Similarly, some worry that three months of in-fighting will leave the party no more unified at the end and will reinforce the public’s perception that they are more focused on bickering with each other than solving the country’s issues.
However, the decision is designed to allow Conservative MPs time to think long and hard about the future of their party. The next leader will take command at a very important juncture for the party, taking responsibility for the errors which led it to its worst-ever defeat, and attempting to reform it so that it stands a chance at the next general election. Factional divisions run deep within the party, with members split on issues such as the role of the welfare state, immigration, and its philosophy behind economic growth. Such divisions make it impossible for a leadership contest and subsequent party unity to be adequately reached within a few weeks.
As it stands, Kemi Badenoch – the right-leaning MP for Saffron Walden – is the bookies’ favourite. “It’s Kemi’s to lose”, one MP is reported to have said to the Spectator (Balls, 2024). Badenoch will position herself as a right-winger who can appeal to the centre of the party and as someone with ministerial experience (she served as Secretary of State for International Trade in Sunak’s government).
*Since this article has been written Kemi Badenoch and Dame Priti Patel have announced their candidacy for their Tory Leadership race and in doing so have added even more weight to the race ahead.
Despite being the favourite at this early stage, the camps of Tugendhat, Cleverly, and Jenrick claim to command wide support from MPs and members alike. Central to all of their early campaign messages has been focused on rebuilding trust with the public after the disaster of Truss and chaos of Johnson, growing the economy, and clamping down on immigration.
The party has a choice – does it bring itself back to centre-right, less extravagant politics, or does it send itself further down the hole of evocative, right-wing populism? It seems that MPs are leaning towards the former: they have learnt that whilst characters such as Johnson might win at the ballot box, they do not provide good leaders for effective Conservative government. However, much of the membership is showing support for figures such as Suella Braverman (the former Home Secretary known for her extreme views on immigration). Indeed, whilst Braverman is polling high with voters, she has so far struggled to reach the 10 MPs threshold to get her name on the ballot.
* Note: Over the weekend, Suella Braverman has ruled herself out of the running for the leadership.
This tussle between political styles and ideological factions will play out over the next 3 months, no doubt holding some unexpected twists and turns in store. What is certain however, is that whoever is elected will determine the direction of a Conservative Party in opposition, who will seek to rebuild and secure a new mandate to lead Britain forwards at the next general election.
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