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July 21st 2024, 14:31. Historians and psephologists will long debate the weight of yesterday’s sudden announcement and even more, the causes that brought Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the Democratic Party, and America to what will most likely be the most consequential moment of the 2024 Presidential Race: Biden’s decision to step down.
In a letter addressed to his fellow Americans, Biden acknowledged key accomplishments in his three and a half years in office: guiding the country through the COVID-19 pandemic, appointing the first African American woman to the Supreme Court (Ketanji Brown Jackson, appointed in 2022), and legislative progress on the issue of gun safety and gun violence with the most progressive action in arms safeguarding in the United States in 30 years. Yet, what Biden’s letter could not hide and made unmistakably clear was the cold, hard fact. Despite five decades of national-level politics under his belt, Biden had met a race that the polls, his party, and those closest to him had little faith he could win, and he too had now accepted that judgement. Regarding his decision, Biden wrote, “It was in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down,” and in doing so, bowed out of what would have been the most difficult political battle of his career. Whilst turning away from elections to focus on “fulfilling [his] duties as President for the [remainder] of [his] term,” the Democratic Party now begins today with the difficult task of assembling a ticket to oppose the Republican Trump-Vance offering.
To see the news break live of Biden dropping out of the race, check out this video below:
It is important first, however, to mark the importance and poignancy of the moment. Biden is no stranger himself to the toil of campaigns as they have underlined his entire political career. Firstly emerging as a son of the Senate representing the State of Delaware between 1973 to 2009, then as a presidential hopeful turned Vice-President serving in the Obama administration between 2008 to 2016, which was then followed by a brief hiatus from national politics before running and defeating the then-incumbent, Donald J. Trump, in 2020, where he then became the US’s 47th President. Naturally, Biden, upon announcing his intention to run for a second term to become President in 2025, positioned himself as the Democratic frontrunner and nominee-presumptive. Yet from the very beginning, his campaign team realised that the road to the White House would be an uphill climb.
A January 2025 Reuters/Ipsos Poll revealed that 67% of Americans did not wish to see a Trump and Biden rematch come November, with Trump beginning to enjoy a six point lead in some polls ahead of Biden following his successes in state primaries during the Republican party presidential race. The climb became steeper still following last month’s presidential debate where Biden’s poor memory, difficulties with articulation, frequent gaffes and lapses in speech in front of 51 million watchers sent alarm bells ringing about not only his health but that of his candidacy. In fact, following the debate, 62% of Democrats in a post-debate exit poll revealed that they would have preferred a different candidate to be their nominee following his performance.
Now, while many would like to consider the debate as the straw that broke the camel’s back, a more nuanced portrait may be of use here. Serious questions about the viability of a Biden-led ticket could be identified as early as the Michigan primary where, despite winning 81% of the vote, Biden underperformed in large part due to a number of policy issues like his administration's stance on Gaza. Michigan in particular highlighted the thematic worry concerning Biden: a strange inability to foster confidence within undecided voters and registered independents. A 2021 Pew Research Center Study illustrated how Biden improved Democratic support among independent voters, which was recorded at 42% for Hillary Clinton in 2016, which he advanced to 52% in 2020. Yet, in May of 2024, Biden’s support from independents had reduced to 28%. When asked about the most important issue this election cycle, most respondents cited the economy and concerns about inflation and growth amid increasing costs of living in regards to energy, water, groceries, and other essential resources. Despite making advancements such as overseeing the creation of 8.6 million new jobs and a $320 billion reduction in the national deficit achieved in his tenure, Biden’s efforts were rewarded with unsubstantial support.
After reportedly being encouraged by senior Democratic party leaders Nancy Pelosi, Speaker Emerita of the House of Representatives; Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Leader in the House of Representatives; and Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader; Biden accepted his fate and ceded ground. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, stating, “I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year.”. Harris, who has been a prominent face of the administration on a number of issues from border security and immigration to reproductive justice and gun control, has vowed to “earn the nomination.” As the sun rises on day one of a post-Biden 2024 race, the Democrats have a number of difficult decisions to make. Will they affirm Biden’s endorsement of Harris at the upcoming Democratic National Convention and name her as the nominee? Who will join the ticket as her VP? What will a Harris policy platform look like? And to make matters worse, all of these decisions have to be made with radical urgency. If one thing’s for certain, American elections teach us that every second is critical. Waste not, want not.
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